The 2024 election was one of the most surprising in recent history. Initially, it was expected to be between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. However, after a poor debate performance, Biden exited the race and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who quickly became the official Democratic nominee.
Heading into election night, the race was considered a toss-up. Betting platform Polymarket showed Trump with a 57% chance and Harris with 43%. While betting markets aren’t predictive, they do respond quickly to current polling and news, which put Trump in a favorable position. Polls showed the race as a near tie.
The U.S. president is elected through the Electoral College rather than by popular vote. Each state’s electoral votes correspond to its representation in the House and Senate, which is why populous states like California and New York have 54 and 28 electoral votes, respectively. This is a winner-takes-all system, where even a slight majority can secure all of a state’s electoral votes for one candidate.
Seven key battleground states this year included Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. Battleground states are those that don’t consistently vote for one party but tend to shift with each election. Pennsylvania was seen as the deciding state. Analysts believed Harris would win Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump would carry the other battlegrounds, making Pennsylvania the decider.
When polls began closing at 7:00 PM, early results were concerning for Harris. As expected, Kentucky and Indiana leaned heavily Republican, but a pattern soon emerged in other states and counties. Trump was outperforming past Republican numbers, and Harris was underperforming in traditionally Democratic areas compared to Biden and Hilary. However, early data can be misleading, so many Democrats remained hopeful.
As the night went on, Trump’s lead grew, and he began winning all the swing states. Many Democrats called this a “Red Mirage,” a phenomenon where early results favor Republicans due to the timing of vote counts. They anticipated a “Blue Shift,” where later counts would favor Democrats. However, there weren’t enough mail-in votes in Democratic areas to close the gap, and the anticipated shift never happened. Polymarket began to reflect this, and the election seemed over, with Harris having only a 0.2% chance of winning.
With nearly all votes counted by early Wednesday morning, the Associated Press called Wisconsin for Trump at 5:34 AM ET, putting him past the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Trump didn’t just win—he swept all seven battleground states, securing a landslide victory.
One of the biggest surprises was Trump winning the popular vote by about four million votes, or a 4% margin. This marked the first time a Republican won the popular vote since George W. Bush in 2004.
Even in traditionally Democratic New York, Trump made notable progress. With 96% of the vote counted, Harris won New York by just 11 points—a much narrower margin than Biden’s 23-point lead in 2020.
In Suffolk County, our own community voted Republican, with Andrew Garbarino winning by 20%, or about 67,000 votes.
The election for the House in Suffolk County was no different, with Republican Andrew Garbarino winning re-election by 20%, or roughly 67,000 votes.
Beyond the presidency, Republicans gained control of both the Senate and House, positioning them to pass legislation and appoint officials without Democratic opposition. With no Senate filibuster for appointments, Republicans are able to fill key leadership roles and judicial seats with loyalists, potentially shaping the country’s direction for years to come.
But what does Amityville Memorial High School think of these results?
In a poll conducted by the Amityville Echo, Harris won 70% (81 votes) to Trump’s 30% (35 votes). A larger poll by the Social Studies Department showed a similar trend, with 76% of a 487 student sample favoring Harris over Trump. These results show that our high school, like much of New York, leans Democratic.
Her office announced that Vice President Kamala Harris will deliver a concession speech Wednesday at 4 p.m. at Howard University. The news has been a shock to many in our community. Trump is now the 47th president and only the second in U.S. history to serve two non-consecutive terms, following Grover Cleveland.
During remarks at Florida’s Palm Beach Convention Center, Trump vowed not to rest “until we have delivered the strong and prosperous America.”
What this victory means for the country remains to be seen.
